PS3 doom and gloom

July 3rd, 2006, 16:44 Posted By: wraggster

Sony is counting on the PlayStation 3 to revive the company's overall fortunes later this year, but the console's been hit by a analyst double whammy today as the US folk who forecast get their teeth into the prospects for Sony's next-gen console.

And it's not good news for the Japanese giant, with two analysts double teaming Sony's prospects in conversation with our colleagues on Next-Gen.biz.

First up is DFC Intelligence's David Cole, who told Sony to beware the Ides of November while making the shocking prediction that the PS3 could come third in the race between the next-gen consoles. Cole said, "It now appears clear that this new generation of console systems is going to result in a big shake-up in the game industry power structure. While it has always been clear that Sony's dominant market share was destined to decline, there now appears to be the distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii."

Advertisement:Cole does go on to admit, "We should emphasize a third place finish for Sony is only one of several possible scenarios," before hedging his bets a bit further by adding, "We have no way of knowing exactly what sales will be and which platform will be the market leader." Hmm, surely that's what analysts are paid to do?

However, Cole added, "We say the PlayStation 3 could end up in third place that is a worst case scenario for Sony. Furthermore, much will depend on variables such as Sony's execution and most importantly how rapidly they can bring down the PS3 price." It seems clear even at this stage that analysts believe the PS3 price is way too high, and must come down if Sony seriously wants to compete against both Microsoft and to a lesser extent Nintendo in 2007.

While Cole's dire prognostications won't exactly be news to Sony, the ubiquitous PJ McNealy also felt compelled to chuck in his tuppence ha'penny last week, opining that the console's complexity could be a real issue in the early stages and that that could hit Sony's profits.

McNealy said, "We've learned the Sony Playstation 3 is not just a game console. It's a movie platform. It's also a super-computer. This is now the most complex box that's ever been built in this industry. It's going to have a Cell processor, it's going to have a Blu-ray drive. The number of pieces that are going into this box are even more astounding [than the Xbox 360]."

However, McNealy added that he thought Sony would smooth things out in the manufacturing process in 2007 when it aims to produce up to the one million PS3s a month to meet expected demand. But McNealy once again identified that oh-so-large price tag as a crucial component. Then, said McNealy, "The wild-card becomes, [whether] people still want to spend six-hundred bucks on the box."

But are the analysts right? Pretty much everyone agrees the PS3's price tag is on the swollen side, but is it conceivable that the follow-up to current-gen's best seller might fall to third in the console battle? Your thoughts are welcome in the comments field below.

Via CVG

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